【编者按】为发挥我院国家高端智库的优势和特长，做好第三届中国国际进口博览会学术外宣工作，院党委宣传部（院科研成果传播办公室）与中共上海市委对外宣传办公室对外宣传处联合举办第三届中国国际进口博览会主题专家视点征文活动。入选稿件由上海市人民政府新闻办公室“感知上海”网站刊登，我院“智库外宣|进博会特辑”同步推送。
第三届中国国际进口博览会（下称“进博会”）即将在上海召开。与前两届不同，本届“进博会”是在全球遭受新冠疫情肆虐，四年一度的东京夏季奥运会被迫延期，世界经济出现停滞衰退的特定历史时期召开的，因而具有特殊的历史意义。
“双循环”构建是深化改革开放促进高质量发展的重大创举
突如其来的新冠疫情被世界卫生组织（WHO）定性为全球重大突发性公共卫生事件，它对世界经济的影响不同与历次经济危机、金融危机，因为影响机制截然不同，不是由经济系统内部的各种结构性失衡问题引发的，而是各国出于疫情防控需要，不得不从生产供给端按下“暂停键”，并且采取“封国”、“封城”的措施，切断了全球人员、物资往来，也大幅降低了资金的跨国流动，造成全球投资贸易需求的急剧萎缩，从而导致世界经济的大衰退。IMF、世界银行均预测，今年世界经济将呈现负增长，中国是唯一可以实现正增长的国家，但这只是新冠疫情带来的短期冲击。从中长期看，新冠疫情还会触发世界经济格局及全球治理体系的重大变化，成为百年大变局中的“分水岭事件”。
从新冠疫情对国内经济的影响看，发达经济体的生产“停摆”造成的全球产业链、供应链的“断供”以及国际物流受阻和外部需求大幅下降对中国经济复苏造成了较大的负面影响。新冠疫情的爆发还触发了美国对华遏制战略的升级，不仅使疫情前中美达成的第一阶段贸易协议无法正常实施，而且对华制裁也已从贸易领域拓展至科技、金融、人文领域的方方面面，这使中国面临的中长期发展环境变得更加严峻。为此，中国政府不仅及时出台了“六保”、“六稳”的多项政策举措，最大限度地降低全球新冠疫情蔓延给国内经济造成的负面影响，而且从着眼于此次疫情可能带来的深远影响，提出了构建“双循环”新发展格局的中长期重大改革开放新举措。
“双循环”的核心内涵是以国内大循环为主体，充分利用相对完备的工业体系与产业链以及庞大的消费市场的优势，加快畅通国内经济运行中生产、分配、流通、消费等各环节，实现包括供需循环、产业循环及要素循环等在内的自我循环，不仅让供给能更好满足市场需求，而且还能进一步创造有效需求，形成高质量的内循环。
“双循环”既不是要否定“外循环”的重要性，更不意味内、外循环是分割的。“双循环”更加重视对外开放，强调依靠制度型开放，进一步提高对外开放水平，让国际资本推动国内改革，优化发展环境，形成与国际通行规则相衔接的制度体系。同时，通过以“内”促“外”，不断增强中国企业“走出去”参与国际竞争合作的能力，实现高水平的外循环。
“十四五”时期，上海要成为“国内大循环的中心节点、国内国际双循环的战略链接”，在服务构建“双循环”新发展格局中实现高质量发展。
扩大内需是实现“内循环”的基础保障。上海要将服务资源与城市发展相结合，加快推动服务业与服务贸易创新发展。一是以文引旅、以旅彰文、文旅促商，推动文旅商融合发展；二是抓住在线经济、平台经济、数字经济的发展契机，加快消费模式创新；三是以新基建推动投资需求升级。相对传统基建的“粗放式”投资模式，“新基建”在扩大内需的同时，能够促进供给侧结构改革，加快产业结构升级，避免出现重复建设、产能过剩的“后遗症”。新基建涉及的5G基建、人工智能、大数据中心、工业互联网等领域，均有望通过数字化技术手段、网络化运行管理和消费新场景应用，培育消费新行为和新需求，促进消费升级。
开放是上海发展的最大优势。通过对外开放引入市场竞争，推动经营效率和服务质量提升，对相关的体制改革形成倒逼机制，不断健全国际化、法治化、便捷化的营商环境，增强外商投资信心，进一步发挥外资总部经济的集聚、辐射效应，以高水平对外开放夯实建设高质量内循环的基础。另一方面，企业“走出去”应从过去的资源寻求型、市场开拓型转为高端生产要素驱动型。通过对外直接投资、股权并购在海外建立产品研发创新基地，利用海外高端人才要素，开发生产拥有自己知识产权或专利的产品，并且借助海外投资获得的国际销售网络渠道，在快速占有全球市场份额的同时，不断提升中资企业在全球价值链的地位。
“进博会”作为世界上首个以进口为主题的国际博览会，既是中国市场对外开放、扩大国际经贸往来合作的重大举措，也是中国推动经济全球化的重要公共产品。本届“进博会”与前两届相比，新使命、新亮点、新特色备受世人瞩目。
从新使命看，“进博会”将成为构建“双循环”的重要载体。通过办好六大特色展区，汇聚全球商品、服务、技术，对接全球资源，不仅为上海扩大对外开放，深化国际贸易投资合作铺新路、搭新桥，而且也为上海打造国际一流的营商环境、树立国际大都市形象提供了重要的契机。“全球首发、中国首展”的新产品、新技术、新理念，也有助于引导消费者对品质消费、精致生活的追求，激发上海市民的消费热情与需求潜能，促进消费升级，加快上海向消费型城市转型。
从新亮点看，“进博会”上亮相的新技术、新服务、新展品有助于从供给端提高供给质量，促进高水平的“外循环”。尽管疫情仍在全球蔓延，但参展的世界500强和行业龙头企业数量已达到往届规模，展览面积更是超过往届。5G技术、AI技术、绿色环保技术以及为新基建护航的其他高科技产品和医疗健康、高端消费品将成为本届“进博会”展示交易的一大亮点。
从新特色看，本届“进博会”采取了“云对接”、“云洽淡”、“云推介”、“云签约”等多种线上形式，稳定线下办展预期，增强企业参展信心。这样的“境外云招商”模式顺应了后疫情时代数字经济、线上经济发展的趋势。此外，“进博会”还可通过设立“线下+线上”的常年展示交易平台，将“展品变商品”，让国外参展商能够从上海“圆心”出发，快速延伸至中国其他市场，助力形成以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局。
（孙立行，上海社会科学院世界经济研究所国际投资研究室主任、研究员）
The Third China International Import Expo (hereinafter referred to as “CIIE”) will be held in Shanghai. Unlike the previous two sessions, the third CIIE takes place in a specific historical period when the COVID-19 pandemic spreads widely across the world, forcing the Tokyo Summer Olympics to be postponed, and causing stagnant growth or even recession in the world economy. Therefore, it has special historical significance.
Building “dual economic cycles” is a major measure to deepen reform and opening up and promote high-quality development.
The sudden outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic is classified by the World Health Organization (WHO) as a major global public health emergency. Its impacts on world economy are different from those of economic and financial crises, because the influencing mechanisms are completely different. This time, the problem doesn’t lie in the structural imbalance within the economic system. Instead, countries have to press the “pause button” on the production and supply side due to epidemic prevention and control, and take measures to “lock down countries” and “lock down cities”, cutting off the flow of personnel and materials across the world, greatly reducing the cross-border flow of funds, leading to a sharp decline in global investment and trade demand, and resulting in a global recession. The IMF and World Bank predict that the world economy will see negative growth this year, and that China is the only country able achieve positive growth. These are short-term impacts brought by the pandemic. In the medium and long term, the pandemic will bring major changes in the global economic structure and governance system, becoming a “watershed” admist the changes unseen in a century.
Judging from impacts of the pandemic on China’s domestic economy, disruption of global industrial chains and supply chains caused by shutdown of production in developed economies, as well as obstruction of international logistics and the sharp decline in external demand have exerted negative influences on China’s economic recovery. The outbreak of the pandemic also triggered an escalation in America’s containment strategy against China, making it impossible to implement the first phase of the trade agreement reached between China and America before the pandemic. Besides, America’s sanctions against China have expanded from trade to all aspects in technology, finance, people-to-people and cultural exchanges, leaving a more severe environment for China’s medium and long-term development. To address this challenge, the Chinese government has introduced a number of policies and measures to ensure stability on the six fronts and maintain security in the six areas in a timely manner, hoping to minimize the negative impacts of the global spread of the pandemic on the domestic economy. Besides, it has proposed new measures for reform and opening-up in the medium and long term to build a new development pattern with “dual economic cycles” according to possible, far-reaching impacts of the pandemic.
The core part of the “dual economic cycles” is to take the domestic economic circle as the mainstay, make full use of the advantages of its relatively complete industrial system and industrial chain, as well as the huge consumer market to facilitate smooth production, distribution, circulation, and consumption in domestic economic operation, and realize self-cycle including the supply and demand cycle, business cycle and production factor cycle. With these efforts, we can not only better meet market demand, but also further create effective demand and form a high-quality domestic economic cycle.
Instead of negating the importance of the “international economic cycle”, or suggesting that the domestic and international economic cycles are separate, the “dual economic cycles” pays more attention to opening to the outside world, and emphasizes the need to rely on institution-based opening to further improve the level of opening to the outside world. Besides, it uses international capital to promote domestic reforms, optimize the development environment, and form an institutional system complying with internationally accepted rules. Meanwhile, by promoting external development through pursuing internal development, the ability of Chinese enterprises to go global and participate in international competition and cooperation will be continuously enhanced, thus achieving the international economic cycle at a high level.
Shanghai will become a strategic link between the domestic and international economic cycles.
During the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, Shanghai will become a center in the domestic economic cycle and a strategic link between the domestic and international economic cycles and achieve high-quality development under the new development pattern of “dual economic cycles” in services.
Expanding domestic demands is the basic guarantee for realizing “domestic economic cycle”. Shanghai will combine its service resources with urban development and accelerate the innovation and development of the service industry and trade in service. First, it will promote the integrated development of culture, tourism and business by attracting tourists with culture, spreading culture through tourism, and promoting business by cultural tourism; second, it will seize the development opportunities of the online economy, platform economy, and digital economy to accelerate innovation in consumption models; third, it will promote upgrade of investment demand with new infrastructure. Compared with the “extensive” investment model in traditional infrastructure construction, the new infrastructure can promote supply-side structural reforms, accelerate upgrading of the industrial structure, and avoid residual problems of repeated construction and overcapacity while expanding domestic demand. It involves 5G infrastructure, artificial intelligence, big data center and industrial internet, all of which may foster new consumer behaviors and new demands, and promote consumption upgrading through digital technology, network operations management and new consumption scenarios.
Opening up is Shanghai’s biggest advantage in its development. Market competition will be introduced through opening up to the outside world to improve operating efficiency and service quality, form a mechanism forcing relevant systems to reform, continue to improve the internationalized, rule of law and convenient business environment, strengthen people foreign investors’ confidence, further give play to the clustering and radiating effects of headquarters economy of foreign enterprises, and lay a solid foundation for building a high-quality domestic economic circle with high-level opening up. On the other hand, it’s necessary for the enterprises intended to go global to shift from development based on seeking resources and exploring markets to growth driven by high-quality factors. It’s important for them to establish overseas product R&D innovation bases through foreign direct investment, equity mergers and acquisitions, capitalize on overseas high-end talents to develop and make products with their own intellectual property rights or patents, and use the international sales network channels brought by overseas investment to quickly occupy global market shares, while continuously improving the status of Chinese enterprises in the global value chain.
As the world’s first international expo with import as its theme, the CIIE is not only a major measure to open up the Chinese market to the outside world and expand international cooperation in economy and trade, but also an important public product for China to promote economic globalization. Compared with the previous two sessions, the third CIIE’s new mission, new highlights and new features have attracted worldwide attention.
In terms of the new mission, the CIIE will become an important carrier to build “dual economic cycles”. The six featured exhibition areas will bring together global products, services, and technologies, and match global resources, which will pave a new way and build a new bridge for Shanghai to expand its opening to the outside world and deepen international trade and investment cooperation, while providing a gold opportunity for it to create a world-class business environment and build the image of an international metropolis. The new products, new technologies, and new concepts debuted worldwide and exhibited for the first time in China will also help guide consumers’ pursuit of quality consumption and exquisite life, stimulate Shanghai citizens’ consumption enthusiasm and demand potential, promote consumption upgrading, and speed up Shanghai’s transformation into a consumer city.
In terms of new highlights, the new technologies, new services, and new exhibits unveiled at the CIIE will help improve the quality of products from the supply side and promote the formation of a high-level “international economic cycle”. Although the pandemic is still spreading cross the world, the number of Fortune Global 500 companies and industry leaders attending the expo reaches the scale of the last session, and the exhibition area is larger than the previous one. 5G technology, AI technology, green environmental protection technology, and other high-tech products supporting the new infrastructure construction, as well as medical and health, and high-end consumer products will become highlights of exhibition and transaction during the third CIIE.
In terms of new features, the third CIIE has adopted various online methods such as “cloud matchmaking”, “cloud negotiation”, “cloud promotion” and “cloud signing” to ensure the success of offline exhibitions and enhance enterprises’ confidence to participate. The model of “cloud overseas investment promotion” is in line with the development trend of digital economy and online economy in the post-pandemic era. In addition, the CIIE can set up a “offline+online” regular platform for exhibition and transaction to turn exhibits into goods, enabling foreign exhibitors to start with Shanghai at the “center of the circle” and quickly reach other markets in China, and contributing to the formation of a new development pattern with the domestic economic cycle as the mainstay, and the domestic and foreign economic cycles boosting each other.
(Sun Lixing, Director and Researcher of International Investment Research Office, Institute of World Economy, Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences)
